Indian jewellers are holding back gold purchases ahead of their busiest season, betting that prices will fall further after gold dropped below $4,000 an ounce last week for the first time since July.
Jewellers Wait on the Sidelines
Indian jewellers are delaying gold purchases ahead of their busiest demand season, expecting that the recent fall in prices has further to run, according to the country’s biggest precious metals refiner. Samit Guha, chief executive officer and managing director of MMTC-PAMP India, a joint venture of state-owned MMTC and Swiss refinery PAMP, gave the assessment in a Bloomberg report published on October 28.
Large jewellery chains, which typically account for most sales, have yet to fully return to the market, Guha said. Buying has instead been led by small and mid-sized jewellers, some of which have placed repeat orders.
Gold’s Fall Below $4,000
Gold fell below $4,000 an ounce last week for the first time since July, according to Bloomberg. The metal has fallen about 24% since the US-Iran war began in late February.
BusinessToday reported on October 24 that international gold prices fell around 4% in the week, which was the weakest weekly performance in more than four months. Bullion slipped towards $4,000 an ounce as rising crude oil prices, renewed inflation concerns and expectations of tighter US monetary policy weighed on prices. COMEX gold ended that week near $4,008 after dipping below $4,000, according to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
| Indicator | Reported Figure |
| Gold price level | Fell below $4,000 an ounce last week, first time since July |
| Decline since US-Iran war began in late February | About 24% |
| Weekly fall in international gold | Around 4%, the weakest week in over four months |
Why Big Jewellers Time Their Purchases
Guha explained how large jewellery makers behave. They typically step up purchases when prices start rising, to lock in supplies before they become more expensive. When they expect prices to keep falling, they draw down their existing inventories and wait.
That pattern is what is visible now. If larger buyers expect cheaper gold, they have little reason to buy ahead of need, and that lowers demand from a key part of the market at a time of year when sales would normally be rising.
Duty and the Cash Market
India imports nearly all the gold it consumes, so tariffs matter. Guha said a higher import duty has affected purchases for his business, and the report noted that the higher tariff has also pushed more buying into under-the-counter cash markets.
An under-the-counter cash market is one where gold changes hands outside the formal system. Such trades are harder to track, so they can make official demand figures look weaker than actual buying.
Recycled Gold and Weak Imports
Other industry voices described a similar picture earlier in the week. In a BusinessToday report from October 23, Avinash Gupta, vice chairman of the All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council, said sales had been down but that the industry expected a good festival season. Exchange of old gold, which was traditionally about 30% of gold purchases, is now about 50%, he said.
Gupta said most of the spending is on low-carat and lightweight jewellery, and that people are not willing to spend on gold. He added that there is fear that prices will fall further, and that a lot of recycled gold has entered the market, which has led to a drop in gold imports. Industry trends showed that gold and silver imports remained muted in October.
What Analysts Are Watching
Technical watchers are focused on the $4,000 level. Ponmudi R said the immediate support zone is at $3,970 to $4,000, and that a break below that range could drag prices towards $3,900. Support is a price level where buyers have previously stepped in, so a break below it is read as a sign that the fall could extend.
BusinessToday’s personal finance coverage also advised buyers not to assume prices have bottomed out, and suggested staggered buying as one way to spread risk. These are attributed views from market participants and are not recommendations.
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What It Means for the Festive Season
Gold demand in India typically rises in the festive and wedding season. This year, a mix of lower prices, higher duty, old-gold exchanges and expectations of more declines has changed how buyers and jewellers are behaving. Small and mid-sized jewellers are buying, while the larger chains are waiting.
The next signals will be whether international prices stabilise above $4,000, whether the large chains return to buying, and what import data show for October. Gold prices can move sharply, and the figures here describe the market as reported on October 28, 2026.
